Descriptive and Predictive Time Series Analysis of Premature Mortality from Noncommunicable Disease among Filipinos

Paul Adrian V. Pinlac1 and Ngamphol Soonthornworasiri2

1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,
College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
2Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine,
Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand

Introduction. The problem of increasing mortality from noncommunicable disease (NCD) in the Philippines warrants an in-depth assessment of premature death rate in the country. This research aims to explore the temporal characteristics of mortality younger than 70 years old from the leading NCD among Filipinos from 2006 to 2012 and forecast premature mortality rates in 2013 to 2015.

Methods. Time series modeling and forecasting using the Box-Jenkins method was performed on secondary ecologic data extracted from the national mortality database maintained by the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office.

Results. Premature death rate from cardiovascular diseases has been increasing steadily. Diabetes mellitus, which shows initially rising mortality among the 30-69-year-old age group, has been reversed in 2009. Trends of premature mortality from cancers and chronic lung diseases did not appear to change over time. NCD mortality rates in the 60-69-year-old age group are generally expected to plateau from 2013 onwards. Conclusion. This novel application of time series analysis on premature NCD mortality data drives both further scientific studies and formal programmatic evaluation by providing a better evidence-based picture of NCD burden in the country.

Key Words: noncommunicable disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes mellitus, chronic respiratory disease, ARIMA modeling